The Munich Security Conference 2026 has started in Germany. It is taking place against the backdrop of Russia’s protracted war against Ukraine, the rise of hybrid threats, and an increasingly sharp debate over who should bear the primary burden of Europe’s defense.
The transatlantic model no longer appears immutable, and the issue of the EU’s strategic autonomy is moving from theory into the practical sphere.
Alona Lebedieva, owner of the Ukrainian diversified industrial and investment group of companies Aurum Group, emphasizes that Europe’s support for Ukraine is real and substantial; however, the key question today concerns its scale and predictability.
“Support for Ukraine exists, and this must be acknowledged. But too often it remains reactive. War does not wait for procedures. If Europe wants strategic security, it must act faster and more systematically.”
In her view, this year’s Munich meeting will serve more as a test of intentions than as a venue for breakthrough decisions.
“Munich will not become a platform for a loud breakthrough. Breakthroughs are made not by words, but by contracts spanning years, by production, and by decisions that outlive electoral cycles. The question is whether Europe is ready to invest in defense as long-term infrastructure rather than as a response to a crisis.”
Lebedieva draws attention to the danger of the illusion of a “quick peace” without credible deterrence guarantees.
“Any peace without clear security guarantees and without real deterrence resources will mean only a pause. Russia will use it to regroup. If Ukraine does not become part of a new European security architecture, the whole of Europe will remain vulnerable.”
She predicts that pressure on Kyiv to reach rapid agreements will only intensify, and therefore Europe’s position will determine the future configuration of security on the continent.
“There will be no breakthrough. But it will become clear whether Europe is ready to move from reaction to strategy. Hope cannot be a strategy. Security must become a system — fast, predictable, and protected from political fluctuations.”
Munich 2026 is unlikely to change the course of history in three days. But it will show whether Europe is capable of thinking in terms of years ahead. And Ukraine’s future, as well as the stability of the entire continent, directly depends on this.