Uzbekistan has significantly raised its economic expectations. In its Fiscal Strategy for 2027–2029, the Ministry of Economy and Finance revised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 6.6% to 8.1%. If this scenario materialises, the country will demonstrate one of its highest economic growth rates in recent years.
The government subsequently expects a certain slowdown to 6.9% in 2027, followed by renewed acceleration to 7.1% in 2028 and 7.4% in 2029.
The very next day, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev set an even more ambitious objective for the government: to ensure sustainable annual economic growth of 9–10%.
According to Alona Lebedieva, owner of the Ukrainian industrial and investment group Aurum Group, rapid economic growth is effectively evolving in Uzbekistan from a projected outcome into a distinct state strategy. The authorities are increasingly linking economic policy not only to stability but also to the continued acceleration of production, investment and domestic consumption.
The Government Expects More Than International Institutions
The government’s targets significantly exceed the forecasts of international financial institutions. The IMF expects Uzbekistan’s economy to grow by 6.8% in 2026, the Asian Development Bank by 6.7%, the EBRD by 6.5%, and the World Bank by 6.4%.
Thus, even the government’s revised forecast of 8.1% is considerably more optimistic than external estimates, not to mention the president’s goal of achieving annual growth of 9–10%.
There are indeed grounds for such optimism. The economy grew by 8.7% in the first quarter of 2026 and, according to a preliminary estimate, by 8.5% in the first half of the year. State budget revenues are expected to be 19% higher than previously forecast.
The government attributes this performance to high global prices for gold and copper, as well as faster growth in services, industry, construction and agriculture.
The volume of services is expected to increase by 16.6%, compared with the previously projected 14.5%. Industrial production is forecast to grow by 8% instead of 6.4%, construction by 12.4% instead of 10.2%, and agriculture by 5% instead of 4.2%.
In Alona Lebedieva’s view, it is important that the revised forecast is based not on the performance of a single export sector but on a broader acceleration of economic activity. At the same time, the scale of this acceleration places greater demands on the energy sector, the financial system and the quality of public administration.
Automotive Production and Domestic Demand
The government is placing particular hopes on the automotive industry. Uzbekistan plans to produce 510,000 passenger cars in 2026.
Of these:
This target appears achievable, as the country produced 457,800 passenger cars in 2025. Most of the market is occupied by Chevrolet vehicles manufactured by UzAuto Motors, formerly Daewoo Uzbekistan, which was reoriented primarily towards domestic demand following its nationalisation in 2019.
Domestic consumption remains one of the main drivers of the economy. Uzbekistan’s population is approaching 39 million, with around 75% of its citizens under the age of 50.
Rising incomes, preferential lending and government programmes supporting consumption are stimulating sales of cars, housing and services. This provides the economy with additional momentum but also increases its dependence on access to credit and the stability of household incomes.
Tourism as a New Source of Revenue
Tourism is becoming another important area of development. Uzbekistan welcomed a record 11.7 million foreign visitors in 2025, while the authorities plan to increase this figure to 16 million in 2026.
To accommodate the growing tourist flow, 483 new accommodation facilities are expected to open, including 86 hotels.
At the same time, neighbouring countries still account for a significant share of tourist arrivals. In 2025, 3.3 million visitors came from Kyrgyzstan, while 2.7 million arrived from each of Tajikistan and Kazakhstan.
Uzbekistan’s next challenge is to develop higher-spending tourism and attract more visitors from distant markets. One step in this direction was the introduction of a visa-free regime for Chinese citizens in 2025.
Energy May Become the Main Constraint
In 2026, the government plans to increase electricity generation to 93.3 billion kWh. Solar and wind power plants are expected to account for 14.3 billion kWh of this volume. Natural gas production is forecast at 25.4 billion cubic metres.
At the beginning of the year, total electricity generation stood at 86.7 billion kWh. However, by the summer it had become clear that the energy system was operating close to its limits.
In July, amid abnormally high temperatures reaching 48°C, daily electricity consumption hit an all-time high. The system was unable to cope with the load, and on 17 July the Ministry of Energy was forced to introduce rolling blackouts lasting two to three hours per day in certain areas.
Alona Lebedieva notes that energy infrastructure may become one of the main constraints on the implementation of the country’s ambitious economic plans. Manufacturing, construction, transport, data centres and the service sector require increasing amounts of electricity, meaning that generation must expand at an even faster pace.
The economy may be able to increase production rapidly, but without the modernisation of power grids, new generating capacity and sufficient reserves, maintaining growth of 9–10% will become increasingly difficult.
High Metal Prices Create Additional Opportunities
High global commodity prices play an important role in the government’s forecasts. Gold and copper remain among Uzbekistan’s main export commodities.
Demand for copper is increasing due to the development of electric vehicles, renewable energy, power grids and the broader electrification of the global economy. This creates favourable opportunities for Uzbekistan to increase export revenues and finance new investment projects.
However, favourable market conditions are not permanent. Long-term economic growth cannot depend solely on expensive metals and strong demand for raw materials.
Transitioning to a More Sophisticated Economic Model
This is why Uzbekistan is attempting to gradually transform the structure of its economy. The country is focusing on industry, financial services, tourism, technology, service exports and the establishment of the Tashkent International Financial Centre.
The centre is expected to help attract new capital, develop the financial sector and create a more sophisticated economic model in which private investment, modern services and the production of higher-value-added goods play a greater role.
At the same time, the gap between the government’s estimates and the forecasts of international institutions remains significant. In June, the EBRD maintained its growth forecast at 6.5% for 2026 and 6% for 2027. The Asian Development Bank expects growth of 6.7% and 6.8%, respectively. In June, the World Bank raised its forecast only to 6.4%, while the IMF increased its projection to 6.8%.
According to Alona Lebedieva, the main measure of success will not merely be Uzbekistan’s ability to achieve growth of more than 8% in 2026. Far more important will be whether the country can transform favourable commodity prices, strong domestic demand and public investment into a sustainable development model.
Maintaining growth of 9–10% over several years will require more than high gold prices, increased automobile production and record tourist flows. It will require sufficient electricity generation, more productive enterprises, strong financial institutions, private investment and consistent reforms.
These factors will determine whether the current acceleration marks the beginning of a new stage in Uzbekistan’s development or remains the result of an exceptionally favourable economic year.