Growth in investment in manufacturing, energy and technology points to a gradual shift in the structure of Kazakhstan’s economy.
Kazakhstan’s investment landscape is undergoing a noticeable transformation, with new capital increasingly flowing not into raw material extraction, but into manufacturing, energy, infrastructure and technology.
In January–August 2026, fixed capital investment in Kazakhstan reached KZT 13.5 trillion, up 8.1% compared with the same period last year. More important than the overall increase, however, is where that capital is being directed.
The share of manufacturing in total investment rose to 14.1%, while the share of the extractive sector declined to 13.9%. By comparison, in 2024 manufacturing accounted for 10.7% of investment, while mining and extraction represented 18.7%.
According to Alona Lebedieva, owner of the industrial and investment group Aurum Group, these figures may indicate a gradual shift in Kazakhstan’s investment model – from a strong focus on resource extraction towards greater financing of industries that create added value within the country.
During the first eight months of 2026, real investment in manufacturing increased by 39.9%, investment in energy rose by 49.3%, and investment in information and communications grew by 45.3%. At the same time, investment in the extractive sector declined in real terms.
A similar trend can be seen in industrial output. Manufacturing production increased by 8.4% in January–August, while output in the extractive sector fell by 4.3%.
This does not mean that Kazakhstan is ceasing to be a resource-based economy. Oil, gas, metals and other natural resources remain critically important to the country’s exports and industrial model. However, the structure of new investment is gradually changing.
The sources of financing are also shifting. The share of budget funds in capital investment declined from 23% in January–August 2025 to 14% during the same period in 2026. Businesses’ own funds accounted for 66.7% of total investment, bank loans for 5.6%, and other borrowed funds for 13.7%.
“For an economy, it is not only the total volume of investment that matters, but also where the capital is directed. When investment goes into manufacturing, mechanical engineering, energy and technology, a significantly larger share of the added value created remains within the country,” Alona Lebedieva said.
At the same time, Kazakhstan is restructuring its institutional framework for attracting investment. A central role has been assigned to Baiterek Holding, which has been transformed into a national investment holding company. Through its instruments, Kazakhstan plans to attract an additional approximately $150 billion in investment by 2029.
In 2026, financing of the real sector through Baiterek is expected to remain at around KZT 8 trillion.
A new portfolio of investment projects is also being developed. Kazakh Invest has already selected 667 projects with a combined value of $162.5 billion. A separate portfolio of projects aimed at developing the country’s resource base totals another $42.6 billion.
Kazakhstan is also changing its approach to working with investors. Regions are expected to identify promising sectoral niches and prepare specific project proposals in advance, so that potential investors receive not only a general invitation to enter the market, but concrete projects with a clear economic model.
These changes are gradually being reflected in the broader economic structure. Manufacturing’s share of GDP increased from 12.4% in 2024 to 12.8% in 2025 and reached 14% in the first half of 2026. Over the same period, the share of the extractive industry declined from 12% to 11.7%.
However, one year of accelerated investment growth is not enough to conclude that Kazakhstan has completed a structural transformation. The key question will be whether this trend can be sustained over the next several years.
According to Alona Lebedieva, if capital continues to move into mechanical engineering, manufacturing, energy, transport infrastructure and technology, Kazakhstan could gradually shift from a model based primarily on the value of extracted resources towards an economy in which an increasing share of added value is created domestically.
This is why the current investment dynamics matter not only as a statistical indicator. They may become one of the first signs of a deeper transformation of Kazakhstan’s economy – from extraction to production, and from raw material exports to the development of its own industrial value chains.
About Aurum Group
Aurum Group is a Ukrainian diversified industrial and investment group bringing together companies and projects in industry, mechanical engineering, transport and other sectors.