In July, the United States collected $29.6 billion from tariffs — the highest monthly figure since the beginning of the year. According to U.S. Treasury data, total revenues from January have already exceeded $152 billion. The pace of growth is striking: in May, it was $22.2 billion, in June — $26.6 billion, while in March it was only $8.2 billion.
Over the past three months alone, customs duties and excise taxes have brought $78.4 billion to the U.S. budget — more than during the entire 2024 fiscal year, when they totaled $77 billion (the U.S. fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30). “If the current trend continues, annual revenues could reach $308 billion — almost 85% of corporate tax revenues in the U.S., which last year amounted to $366 billion. For a country with a $1.8 trillion budget deficit, such additional budget inflows are clearly significant,” notes Alona Lebedieva, owner of the Ukrainian diversified industrial and investment group of companies Aurum Group.
The figures leave no doubt: Donald Trump’s tariff strategy is working. It not only brings tens of billions per month into the budget, but also demonstrates a new reality in international trade. Lebedieva points out that the world, which for three decades lived under the rules of the World Trade Organization, is gradually moving away from them. To be fair, the WTO provided countries with a clear and relatively stable framework for cooperation, contributed to the growth of global trade, and led to some improvement in prosperity. But that era is ending.
“A new era of economic pragmatism is emerging — or, to call things by their proper names, economic egoism. The United States openly prioritizes its own interests, changing the rules when it suits them, and reducing the role of multilateral agreements in favor of bilateral ones. Other major economies will follow this lead. In the coming years, we will see the global trading system fragment, with key decisions made in closed-door negotiations between powerful players,” she says.
For Ukraine, ignoring this trend would be a fatal mistake. If we do not adapt, we will be used merely as a peripheral source of raw materials and cheap labor. This means that today we must systematically study possible scenarios of tariff increases by our trading partners, assess and model their impact on Ukraine’s economy and industry, and, most importantly, act in advance.
“A qualitative structural transformation of the economy is needed — Ukraine must identify the sectors that can truly compete on global markets and create conditions for their development. Equally important is to protect the national producer in the domestic market by using localization tools and prudent protectionist policies — the very format of world trade that the United States is now aggressively implementing, and in whose wake other major players will follow, opens the door to protecting domestic producers. And, without a doubt, we must reduce the raw-material orientation of Ukraine’s economy by increasing the production of goods with high added value, which create jobs within the country,” stresses Alona Lebedieva.
The global rules of trade are already changing — and they are changing without us. The question is whether Ukraine will be among those who adapt to these rules in time, or remain merely an object of others’ interests, with minimal influence over its own fate. Time to answer this question is running out.