Russia’s full-scale invasion has fundamentally reshaped the structure of Ukraine’s economy. Before 2022, its key drivers were agriculture, metallurgy, and domestic consumer demand. Today, however, the economy is increasingly reorganizing around the realities of wartime. The role of the defense industry, infrastructure construction, logistics, and energy is growing rapidly. These sectors are not merely sustaining the functioning of the country – they are forming a new economic framework that will shape the future development of both business and the state.
“One of the most visible changes has been the rapid growth of the defense sector. Over the course of several years of war, Ukraine’s defense-industrial complex has expanded many times over: production volumes have increased to approximately $35 billion, and the number of weapons manufacturers has exceeded 900 companies, most of them privately owned. In terms of scale, the defense industry is already approaching traditional sectors of the economy and is effectively becoming one of the key drivers of economic development,” says Alona Lebedieva, owner of the Ukrainian multidisciplinary industrial and investment group Aurum Group.
At the same time, a new infrastructure-driven economy is emerging. The war has destroyed a significant share of Ukraine’s energy facilities, transport hubs, and housing stock, which is why construction and reconstruction are gradually becoming one of the main areas of economic activity. The volume of construction work in 2025 increased by approximately 12%, and the sector is rapidly adapting to the demands of large-scale reconstruction and infrastructure modernization.
“Another important transformation concerns logistics and energy. Because of attacks on infrastructure and the disruption of traditional routes, businesses have been forced to restructure supply chains, search for new export corridors, and invest in decentralized energy generation. Many companies have switched to autonomous power sources, cogeneration units, or local energy solutions. In effect, this is gradually changing the model of energy consumption in Ukrainian industry,” Lebedieva explains.
At the same time, this transformation is taking place under conditions of limited resources. Ukraine’s GDP still remains roughly 21% below its pre-war level, while economic growth fluctuates around 2% per year. This means that despite the adaptation of businesses, the country continues to operate under constant resource pressure, where government spending and support from international partners play a crucial role.
“That is why the key question today is what elements of this wartime economy will remain after the war. Some sectors – particularly the defense industry, military technologies, and security infrastructure – could become new engines of growth. Others, meanwhile, may transform into civilian sectors, from urban reconstruction to new energy systems and the development of logistics corridors connecting Ukraine with Europe,” Alona Lebedieva emphasizes.
In fact, the war is already triggering the emergence of a new economic model for Ukraine – one that is more technological, more industrial, and more deeply integrated into European production chains.